Since getting to be Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi has guaranteed to move forward Tehran’s relations with its neighbours. Final week’s understanding with Saudi Arabia to reestablish political relations, marked in Beijing, is more genuine proof of those endeavours bearing natural products, after a later warming of relations with Kuwait and the Joined together the Middle Eastern Emirates
But whereas the nation remains intensely authorized by the US, and confined from much of Europe due to its back for Russia within the war in Ukraine, it seems still contend that the assertion between Riyadh and Tehran may be a “step towards the proper course for US endeavours to energize a territorial security system because it seeks after relative withdrawal from the region”, Caroline Rose, a senior investigator at the Modern Lines Founded for Procedure and Arrangement, told
Saudi Arabia has reportedly received some guarantees from Iran, such as a commitment to no longer encourage the Houthi rebels in Yemen to conduct cross-border attacks against the kingdom.
And yet, Saudi Arabia, along with other regional countries such as the UAE and Bahrain, will continue to perceive Iran as a threat.
“It is difficult to envision Iran ending its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon or [Syrian President] Bashar [al-Assad] in Syria, and Iran will always seek a pliant Iraq,” said Gordon Gray, a former US ambassador to Tunisia.
Tehran’s backing for various armed groups in Arab states is unlikely to be “immediately and seriously addressed in immediate normalisation discussions”, said Rose. “Riyadh has by no means suddenly started to see ties with Iran through rose-coloured glasses and continues to share many of the same concerns the US does with Iran’s regional posture and nuclear programme.”
Yet, it should not be assumed that a Riyadh-Tehran détente will lead to a quick end to conflict in Yemen, with other factors important to consider.
Firstly, Tehran cannot singlehandedly push the Houthis towards conducting themselves in ways that will assuage Saudi security concerns.
“The restoration of diplomatic relations could help Saudi Arabia extricate itself from the war in Yemen, but the Houthis of course have their own agenda as well,” Gray said.
That may involve a continued relationship with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which operates independently of the government and answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. There is no guarantee that the IRGC and the Houthis will not cooperate in ways that leave Saudi Arabia feeling threatened.
Yemen’s problems also include many that are separate from the issues that exist between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.
There are other actors, chiefly the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which are not influenced much (if at all) by either Saudi Arabia or Iran.
As of now, it remains to be seen how the separatist STC will adjust its conduct, or not, in response to the Saudi-Iranian agreement.
Members of the STC, which has clashed with the Yemeni government in the past, have already said it will not be held to a deal between the Saudis and the Houthis on any matters pertaining to southern Yemen.