India experienced its lowest monsoon rainfall this year since 2018, primarily due to the influence of the El Nino weather pattern, resulting in an exceptionally dry August, a statement from the state-run weather department highlighted on Saturday (Sep 30).
The monsoon season is of paramount importance to India’s US$3 trillion economy, as it contributes nearly 70 per cent of the essential rainfall required to irrigate crops and replenish reservoirs and aquifers. Given that nearly half of the country’s farmland lacks irrigation, the monsoon rains are even more critical for agricultural production.
This summer’s rainfall deficit may lead to increased prices for staples such as sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables, potentially driving up overall food inflation. Additionally, decreased production could prompt India, the world’s second-largest producer of rice, wheat, and sugar, to impose more restrictions on the export of these commodities.
IMD
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the total rainfall across the country from June to September reached 94 per cent of the long-term average, marking the lowest level since 2018. The IMD had initially projected a 4 per cent rainfall deficit for the season, factoring in a limited impact from the El Nino phenomenon.
El Nino, characterized by warming Pacific waters, typically leads to drier conditions across the Indian subcontinent. The monsoon season was characterized by uneven distribution, with June experiencing a 9 per cent deficit in rainfall due to a delayed onset. However, July saw a rebound, with rainfall exceeding the average by 13 per cent.
August presented a stark contrast, as it turned out to be the driest on record, with a rainfall deficit of 36 per cent. Fortunately, September brought a revival, with rainfall exceeding the norm by 13 per cent, according to the IMD.
The erratic pattern of monsoon rains prompted India, the world’s leading rice exporter, to restrict rice exports and impose a 40 per cent duty on onion exports. The government also permitted duty-free imports of pulses and is considering the possibility of banning sugar exports.
Looking ahead, the weather department predicts that India will receive normal rainfall from October to December. However, it also anticipates that temperatures in most parts of the country will remain above normal during October.
