Exit polls indicate that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is projected to secure a substantial majority in the general election that concluded on Saturday, surpassing the expectations of most analysts. Most exit polls forecast that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could secure a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament, where it needs 272 seats for a simple majority. Attaining a two-thirds majority would enable the government to implement significant constitutional amendments.
A summary of five major exit polls estimated that the NDA could win between 353 and 401 seats, a figure likely to positively impact financial markets when they reopen on Monday. In the 2019 general election, the NDA secured 353 seats, with the BJP alone winning 303. Three of the five polls predicted that the BJP could surpass its 2019 tally of 303 seats this time.
Despite the frequent inaccuracies of exit polls in India, due to the country’s size and diversity, Modi expressed confidence in victory after voting concluded, without directly referencing the exit polls. He claimed that the Indian populace had voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government, though he did not provide evidence for this assertion.
Modi criticized the opposition “INDIA” alliance, calling them casteist, communal, and corrupt, and stating that they had failed to resonate with voters. While pre-election surveys had suggested an easy majority for the BJP, the party faced a vigorous campaign from the “INDIA” alliance, leading many political analysts to predict a narrower victory margin compared to 2019.
The opposition rejected the polls, labeling them as “prefixed” even before their release. They accused India’s main news channels of bias in favor of Modi, a claim that these channels deny, and argued that exit polls in India are largely unscientific.